TCS to consider share buyback along with Q2 results, board meeting on Oct 11

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is set to consider a share buyback, with the company's board meeting scheduled for October 11, 2023, to discuss this decision, according to a statement by the company. TCS shares saw an increase of nearly 1 percent, closing at Rs 3,621.25 on the NSE ahead of the buyback announcement.

As of June 2023, TCS held a cash balance of Rs 15,622 crore and had no outstanding debt. TCS conducted its last share buyback in 2022, amounting to Rs 18,000 crore. This buyback consisted of 4 crore shares priced at Rs 4,500 per share, with a face value of Re 1 per share.

Earlier this year, two other prominent IT companies, Infosys and Wipro, also completed share buybacks. In February 2023, Infosys concluded its buyback by repurchasing 6.04 crore of its shares for Rs 9,300 crore. In June, Wipro announced its largest-ever share buyback worth Rs 12,000 crore.

The TCS board will discuss the share buyback proposal on the same day that the company is expected to announce its Q2FY24 financial results. Analysts anticipate TCS to report sequential growth in profit after tax (PAT) and revenue. Furthermore, it is expected to outperform other tier-1 peers in terms of margin performance. TCS's announcement of several significant cost take-out deals is likely to result in robust total contract value (TCV) bookings for the company.

In the previous quarter, TCS reported a nearly 17 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase in consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 11,074 crore. Its consolidated revenue also grew by nearly 13 percent YoY to Rs 59,381 crore.

Please note that the views and investment tips expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Moneycontrol.com. It is advisable to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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GQG Partners Invests Rs 1,527 Crore in IDFC First Bank; HDFC Mutual Fund Acquires 1.41% Stake in Five Star Business Finance

On September 1, GQG Partners, an asset management firm headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, acquired a 2.6 percent equity stake in IDFC First Bank, a private sector financial institution, through open market transactions.

Rajiv Jain's GQG Partners secured this stake in the bank using two funds. The GQG Partners Emerging Markets Equity Fund purchased 6.38 crore equity shares, while the Goldman Sachs Trust II-Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities Fund bought 10.77 crore shares, based on bulk deals data from the BSE.

These shares, constituting 2.6 percent of the total paid-up equity of the private lender, were acquired at an average price of Rs 89 per share, resulting in a total investment of Rs 1,527.26 crore.

In the same transaction, Cloverdell Investment, owned by the global private equity firm Warburg Pincus, divested 27.87 crore shares, equivalent to a 4.2 percent shareholding in the bank, at the same average price. The stake sale by Cloverdell amounted to Rs 2,480.34 crore.

As of June 2023, Cloverdell held a 7.12 percent stake, representing 47.17 crore shares, in IDFC First Bank. Despite the stock settling with a modest 0.11 percent gain at Rs 93.44 on the BSE on Friday, it has exhibited an upward trajectory, posting gains in 18 out of the last 20 weeks and achieving a remarkable 73 percent increase during that period.

In a separate development, Five-Star Business Finance attracted attention on Friday as its stock declined by 5.89 percent to Rs 727.80 following a significant stake sale by foreign investors.

Foreign investors, including Norwest Venture Partners X - Mauritius, Matrix Partners India Investment Holdings II LLC, and TPG Asia VII SF Pte Ltd, collectively divested 2.55 crore shares, equivalent to 8.75 percent of the total paid-up equity, of the mortgage lender. The stake sale amounted to Rs 1,862.86 crore.

HDFC Mutual Fund was among the buyers of these shares, with HTCL - HDFC Mid - Cap Opportunities Fund acquiring 41.19 lakh shares in Five-Star Business at an average price of Rs 730 per share, totaling Rs 300.7 crore.

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Navigating Market Highs: A Guide to Avoiding 10 Common Pitfalls

Amidst the fervor of soaring markets, it's crucial to balance optimism with patience, risk awareness, and avoiding greed. As the collective belief in "This time it's different" gains momentum, staying grounded becomes paramount. In this euphoric atmosphere, news anchors sport "Nifty - 21000" shirts, and Nasdaq teeters on the brink of a historic high. However, maintaining a measured perspective is essential, especially for those who've experienced the ebbs and flows of the market.

With over three decades in the market, I've weathered booms, busts, scams, and crises. As a fund manager, clients often question my cautious approach during market peaks. My response offers two clear options: retrieve your funds or practice patience. Despite pressure to deploy capital aggressively, my investment philosophy remains steadfast.

While I personally remain fully invested (leveraged at 120 percent), a sense of trepidation lingers. Socrates' wisdom, "Fools are always confident, and the wise are always in doubt," resonates, reminding me to balance bullish hopes with prudent caution. This blend of optimism and realism has contributed to our portfolios outperforming with stability over the long term.

Here are the 10 key lessons I've cultivated over the years to shape my investment approach:

1. Be Bullish, Not Foolish: 
Long-term market progress is rooted in innovation, technology, and opportunities. Embrace a perma-bull stance like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's, but be wary of becoming a pawn to market narratives during euphoric peaks.

2. Breakout Stock Traps:
Be cautious of breakouts driven by hype. While fundamentals drive long-term success, short-term spikes are often manipulated by insiders. Beware of stocks pushed into the spotlight for gains.

3. Estimate Skepticism
Challenge analyst estimates, as they often miss the mark. Focus on valuation, free cash flow, and management intent for sound investment choices.

4. Interpreting Data
Market reactions to data can be counterintuitive. Trust accurate data over convenient interpretations; time will unveil the truth.

5. Future Value Evaluation
Evaluate future promises carefully. Investment decisions should be anchored in valuation, cash flow, and management vision, rather than ephemeral narratives.

6. Overcoming FOMO
Resist the impulse to buy into trending stocks fueled by FOMO. Patience yields better entry points, even for established giants like HDFC or Bajaj.

7. Avoiding Recency Bias
Remember past market trends, like the rise and fall of Pentafour Software and DSQ. Past performance doesn't dictate future outcomes.

8. Herd Mentality Warnings
Beware of crowded trades driven by influencers. Overcrowded sectors often lead to disappointing results, akin to the DotCom bubble or housing crisis.

9. Prioritizing Quality
Avoid favoring penny stocks over established players. Respectable, fairly priced stocks offer better odds than risky alternatives.

10. Objective Evaluation
Avoid emotional attachment to stocks or promoters. Remain rational, even if a stock has performed well in the past.

Bonus: Value Over Price
Invest in quality over low-priced stocks. Focus on substance, not shortcuts, to build a solid portfolio.

By mastering these principles, you'll navigate market waves with confidence and compound wealth wisely. Remember, compounding is indeed the eighth wonder. (Opinions expressed are my own and not reflective of this publication.

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Nifty at 20,000 by December? This Elliot Wave analyst believes so

After a disconnect earlier in the year, Indian markets have started aligning with global markets and are expected to move up, founder of India Charts, a financial services firm, Rohit Srivastava has said, adding he expects the Nifty to hit 20,000 by December end."The US and European markets started to recover from January but Indian markets were disconnected due to the Adani-Hindenburg fiasco. That is now behind us and markets are starting to move up," Srivastava told Moneycontrol on June 2.

He was referring to a report by American short-seller Hindenburg Research in late January that accused the Adani group of stock manipulation and other irregularities. The Indian conglomerate denied the charges but the report triggered a rout in group companies' shares, which have since stabilized. The benchmark Nifty50 has recovered more than 9 percent from the March lows to 18,534 now. The Sensex has gained close to 8.5 percent during the period.

"In March, we also had the highest-ever short position build-up by foreign institutional investors. Most of those positions have been covered now. So my sense is that markets bottomed out in March," Srivastava, who specializes in  Elliot Wave analysis, said. Nifty earnings per share (EPS) for the March quarter came in at Rs 233, 5-6 percent higher than the street's estimates. It was up 14 percent sequentially and 13 percent year-on-year.

Banking & financial services, autos, and metals space performed better than expected, while the rest of the sectors were broadly in line."Be it economic growth or earnings growth, we have done better than most parts of the world," said Srivastava. India's Q4 GDP surprised on the upside at 6.1 percent against an estimate of 5 percent. As India aligns with markets globally, the Nifty could hit 20,000 by December-end and the Nifty Bank scale the coveted 50,000 mark, he said.

"It was a one-and-a-half-year-long consolidation phase, which I would call a clean-up phase. From March onwards, we are seeing pretty strong breath. So this should be a continued bull run for the rest of 2023," he said. On June 2, Indian equity benchmarks closed in the green, with the Sensex up 118 points at 62,547 and the Nifty gaining 46 points to close at 18,534.

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Top 10 Factors that affect the Stock Market on Monday

Bulls kept charging the markets throughout the truncated week that ended April 7, pushing the benchmark indices to sustain their rally. A host of reasons such as higher-than-expected PMI manufacturing data, monthly auto sales numbers, provisional Q4FY23 numbers from banks and NBFCs, FII inflow, and the RBI's surprise pause in interest rate hike with upward revision in growth forecast to 6.5 percent from 6.4 percent aided the surge.

The BSE Sensex climbed 841 points or 1.4 percent to 59,833, and the Nifty50 rose 239 points or 1.4 percent to 17,599, supported by banking and financial services, auto, pharma, and infrastructure stocks.

The broader markets also traded higher with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices gaining 1 percent and 2 percent.

After yet another encouraging week, the momentum is expected to continue along with some volatility in the holiday-shortened week beginning April 10 with focus on corporate earnings, inflation data, global news flows, and FOMC minutes, experts said. 

1) Corporate Earnings

The corporate earnings season for the March FY23 quarter will be kicked off by index heavyweights Infosys on April 13, Tata Consultancy Services on April 12, and HDFC Bank on April 15.

2) CPI Inflation

The consumer price inflation, which measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services, is likely to drop below the 6 percent mark in March on April 12, with moderation in food inflation, against 6.4 percent in the previous month, while core inflation is likely to be sticky around 5.9-6 percent.

3) US Inflation and FOMC Minutes

On the global front, investors will look for cues from US inflation numbers and FOMC minutes scheduled to be released on April 12. Overall, the inflation is expected to moderate further to around 5.3 percent in March against 6 percent in the previous month, while the core inflation is likely to be steady at around 5.5 percent, as per the forecast available on Trading Economics.

4) Global Economic Data Points

5) FII Flow

The consistent FII inflow due to the falling US dollar index and bond yields also aided the markets and experts believe the flow is expected to continue given the hope that Federal Reserve may consider a pause in interest rate hike cycle sooner than later.

6) Oil Prices

Crude oil prices reached to a month's high, with international benchmark Brent crude futures rising to over $85 a barrel, from $79.77 on a week-on-week basis and WTI crude climbing from $75.67 to $80.46 a barrel in the same period, after a surprise OPEC+ output cuts and more-than-expected draw in US oil stocks. But the gains were capped towards the end of week after the weak US economic data raised fears over demand outlook.

7) Technical View

The Nifty has formed bullish candlestick pattern on the weekly scale, with making higher top higher bottom for second consecutive week, and the momentum indicator RSI (relative strength index) giving a nice positive crossover. Also the index climbed back above the 50-week EMA (exponential moving average - 17,426), which is another positive sign.

8) F&O Cues

The weekly Option data indicated that the 17,600 is expected to be a crucial level for the next direction of Nifty50, where we have seen maximum Call as well as Put open interest. Further, the index may find strong resistance around 17,600-17,800 area, whereas 17,500 is expected to be near-term support followed by crucial support at 17,000 levels.

9) India VIX

The volatility cooled down considerably in the last couple of weeks, with the India VIX fell by 8.8 percent for the passing week to 11.79, the lowest weekly closing level since July 2021, from 12.93 levels last week.

10) Corporate Action

Schaeffler India, Britannia Industries, Varun Beverages, Visaka Industries, Edelweiss Financial Services, and Goodluck India will trade ex-dividend, while Emami will turn ex-buyback in the coming week.

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Top 5 stocks that moved the most on December 9

Benchmark indices saw a lot of pain on December 9. At one point, Sensex was down over 600 points and finally closed 0.62 percent lower at 62,181, down 389 points. Nifty shed 112.70 points to end at 18,496. About 1199 shares advanced, 2220 shares declined, and 113 shares were unchanged. Here are the top 10 stocks that moved the most

Benchmark indices saw a lot of pain on December 9. At one point, Sensex was down over 600 points and finally closed 0.62 percent lower at 62,181, down 389 points. Nifty shed 112.70 points to end at 18,496. About 1199 shares advanced, 2220 shares declined, and 113 shares were unchanged. Here are the top 10 stocks that moved the most

Yes Bank | CMP: Rs 19.85 | The stock gained over 11.8 percent after the private sector lender on December 9 said it has received two letters from the Reserve Bank of India pertaining to its deals with CA Basque Investments and Verventa Holdings Limited. Now, the bank plans to engage with the investors to complete its fund raising.

Digispice Technologies | CMP: Rs 26.10 | The stock closed 9.6 percent lower after the company's chief executive officer tendered his resignation. He will be serving his notice period till 31 January, 2023.

V-Guard | CMP: Rs 259.80| The stock gained over 4 percent after the company signed definitive agreements for acquiring 100 percent stake in Sunflame Enterprises for a consideration of Rs 660 crore, on a cash-free, debt-free basis.

IDBI Bank | CMP: Rs 54.75 | The stock shed 5.6 percent after sources said that the timeline for receiving EoIs (expression of interest) for the bank's privatisation may be extended up to early January.

Som Distilleries | CMP: Rs 145 | The stock gained 2.65 percent after the board approved fund raise of Rs 49 crore via rights issue of shares. The company is also executing an expansion plan of Rs 100 crore for setting up a new canning facility and other utilities at Bhopal Plant and expanding brewing facility in Hasan plant.

Sun Pharma | CMP: Rs 993 | The stock gained 1.24 percent after brokerages said that impact of 'import alert' on Halol plant will have insignificant impact on revenue and profit. "US generics story stopped being material for company since 2019-20," noted Bernstein. It has an Outperform call on the stock with target at Rs 1099 per share.

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Top 5 stocks that moved the most on November 29

Benchmark indices ended higher on November 29 with Nifty around 18600. At close, the Sensex was up 177.04 points or 0.28% at 62,681.84, and the Nifty was up 55.20 points or 0.30% at 18,618.

The scrip jumped over 4 percent after CLSA upgraded the outlook on the stock of the payment services company from 'sell' to 'buy'. The recent price correction makes risk-reward "favourable", CLSA said, adding that the company has more than $1 billion cash on the balance sheet. "While our interactions with several investors over the past four months suggest some discomfort or uncertainty on scaling up the lending business, we think that the stock warrants a look now," it said.

Bandhan Bank | CMP: Rs 234.10 | The share price jumped over 4 percent after global brokerage firm CLSA upgraded the stock to buy from outperform with the target at Rs 300 per share. It believes that the bank is likely to benefit from the cyclical recovery in MFI collections/growth.

SBI | CMP: Rs 608.10 | The scrip ended marginally in the red on November 29. State Bank of India (SBI) approved raising Rs 10,000 crore through infrastructure bonds during the financial year 2023, the lender said in an exchange filing. "Raising Infrastructure Bonds up to an amount of Rs. 10,000 crores (including a green shoe option of Rs. 5,000 crores) through a public issue or private placement, during FY23," the release said. On November 24, the SBI's Executive committee of the Central Board consider raising funds through the issuance of infrastructure bonds worth up to Rs 10,000 crore during FY23.

Lyka Labs | CMP: Rs 144 | The stock price ended in the green on November 29. The SEBI Appellate Tribunal (SAT) has lifted the ban imposed on pharmaceutical company Lyka Labs from accessing the capital markets, the pharma company told stock exchanges on November 29. Britannia IndustriesLyka Labs was debarred from buying, selling, or dealing in securities in June 2020 by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in a matter pertaining to the alleged manipulation in the issuance of global depository receipts (GDR).

Britannia Industries | CMP: Rs 4,275 | The scrip ended in the green on November 29. The FMCG major has entered into a Joint Venture Agreement with Bel SA, France, and Britannia Dairy Private Limited on 29th November 2022 to undertake the development, manufacturing, marketing, distribution, trading, and selling, etc., of cheese products in India and certain other countries. As a part of the JVA, Britannia shall sell and transfer 49% of its equity stake in its wholly-owned subsidiary, BDPL, to Bel.

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